// apra_rate_analysis

🏦

Big 4 + Macquarie — Post-COVID Rate Cycle & Deposit Wars

The largest RBA tightening cycle in 30 years exposed a structural split: Macquarie led rates by 30-70bps for 18 months and captured deposit market share the Big 4 couldn't reclaim.

APRA DataFinanceRate AnalysisMarket ShareRBADeposit Competition

0.10%→4.35%

RBA cash rate cycle

Nov 2020 → Nov 2023

+133%

Macquarie deposit share

relative gain 2020–2024

30-70bps

Macquarie premium

above Big 4 savings rate

$48B

Macquarie deposits

from $14B at cycle start

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// key_findings

  1. 01.

    The Big 4 used the near-zero era (2020–22) to protect Net Interest Margin by not passing RBA cuts to savers. Macquarie maintained positive real spread — a deliberate growth play.

  2. 02.

    When the hike cycle started in May 2022, Macquarie moved in 48 hours. The Big 4 lagged by 4-6 weeks on average — enough for 12-18 months of deposit inflows before the gap closed.

  3. 03.

    CBA's pricing power is structural: even at a 25-35bps savings rate disadvantage, customers don't move. Brand inertia plus ecosystem lock-in (home loan + everyday account) suppresses churn.

  4. 04.

    The NAB/WBC term deposit anomaly: both offered higher 12-month TDs (4.85%) than their own savings rates (4.65%) in late 2024 — savers weren't bothering to lock in, preferring liquidity.

  5. 05.

    February 2025 marked the first RBA cut. The Macquarie premium is now compressing — watch for Big 4 pricing to stabilise as the competitive pressure from Macquarie normalises.

  6. 06.

    APRA's deposit market share data lags 6 months — the real impact of Macquarie's rate leadership on FY2024 deposit balances is only fully visible in the ADI statistics released mid-2025.

// data_lineage

// built_with

React 19TypeScriptSVG time-series (custom)APRA data pipeline (Node.js)Next.js

// methodology_note

Rate history hand-curated from APRA ADI Monthly Statistics and bank product archives. Where exact historical rates weren't publicly preserved, values are APRA-reported best-savings averages ±5bps.