// fiscal_flow_analysis
$738.5B decomposed into a 4-level Sankey — from revenue bucket to sub-program. Follow a dollar from your tax return to NDIS, defence, or debt servicing.
$738.5B
total budget 2024-25
all Commonwealth outlays
47.1%
from income tax
$347.6B individual
$58.6B
structural deficit
net borrowing to close gap
4 levels
decomposition depth
bucket → source → portfolio → program
// key_findings
Individual income tax is 47.1% of all revenue — bracket creep is quietly the government's most reliable revenue lever, growing automatically as wages rise without a budget vote.
NDIS at $42B is the single fastest-growing line item. Demand is structural (disability prevalence + scheme access), not policy discretionary — making it functionally unbudgetable.
Net borrowing funds 8% of spending. The deficit is structural, not cyclical — even at full employment (3.8% in 2024), the Commonwealth spends $58.6B more than it collects.
Defence grew 23% in two years. AUKUS commitments and the Indo-Pacific strategic reassessment have rebaselined defence as a non-discretionary expenditure bloc.
GST ($89.6B) is distributed to states unaltered — the Commonwealth collects it but the federal government doesn't control how it's spent, creating accountability diffusion.
Superannuation tax concessions (~$50B, off-balance-sheet) rival NDIS in fiscal cost but appear nowhere in the main budget papers — the invisible transfer to high earners.
// data_lineage
// built_with
// methodology_note
All Sankey node positions computed analytically from column assignments and vertical flow balancing — no library layout engine. Values cross-validated against MYEFO final estimates.