// orbital_mechanics_viz

🛰️

Starlink Constellation: Satellite Growth & NSW Passes

From 60 satellites in 2019 to 7,000+ operational in 2024. The fastest infrastructure deployment in human history: modelled, mapped, and timed over Sydney.

Space DataOrbital MechanicsLEOSpaceXPass Prediction

7,000+

operational satellites

as of late 2024

6

orbital shells

340km VLEO → 1,200km

~25ms

latency (VLEO)

down from ~40ms at 550km

4-6×/day

quality passes at 34°S

elevation > 30° over Sydney

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// key_findings

  1. 01.

    The 2023 transition from LEO 540km to VLEO 340km was the network's latency inflection, enabling gaming and enterprise tiers that couldn't be served at higher altitude.

  2. 02.

    7,000 satellites sounds like saturation but is 17% of the FCC-authorised 12,000 cap, and <17% of SpaceX's ITU-reserved V2 system allocation of 42,000.

  3. 03.

    At 34°S latitude (Sydney), the geometry of Starlink's inclined shells means 4-6 high-quality passes per day (elevation > 30°), enough for continuous broadband with handoff.

  4. 04.

    The constellation's reliability comes from redundancy, not individual satellite uptime: each shell has enough spares that a satellite failure causes 0 coverage impact.

  5. 05.

    Kessler cascade risk becomes analytically non-trivial above ~6,000 operational LEO satellites at 550km. SpaceX's deorbit-within-5-years commitment is the key mitigation.

  6. 06.

    Pass prediction for a ground station at 34°S was computed analytically from Keplerian orbital parameters: no external API, all mathematics in TypeScript.

// data_lineage

  • ↳ SpaceX Starlink launch manifests (public press releases)
  • ↳ Celestrak TLE archive
  • ↳ FCC satellite licence filings
  • ↳ ITU radio regulations filing database
  • ↳ NASA Debris Assessment Software (DAS) methodology

// built_with

React 19TypeScriptSVG orbital diagram (custom Keplerian math)Pass geometry computed analyticallyNext.js

// methodology_note

Orbital positions are illustrative geometry, not real-time TLE propagation. Pass windows computed from simplified two-body mechanics with J2 perturbation correction for latitude accuracy.