// orbital_mechanics_viz

🛰️

Starlink Constellation — Satellite Growth & NSW Passes

From 60 satellites in 2019 to 7,000+ operational in 2024. The fastest infrastructure deployment in human history — modelled, mapped, and timed over Sydney.

Space DataOrbital MechanicsLEOSpaceXPass Prediction

7,000+

operational satellites

as of late 2024

6

orbital shells

340km VLEO → 1,200km

~25ms

latency (VLEO)

down from ~40ms at 550km

4-6×/day

quality passes at 34°S

elevation > 30° over Sydney

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// key_findings

  1. 01.

    The 2023 transition from LEO 540km to VLEO 340km was the network's latency inflection — enabling gaming and enterprise tiers that couldn't be served at higher altitude.

  2. 02.

    7,000 satellites sounds like saturation but is 17% of the FCC-authorised 12,000 cap, and <17% of SpaceX's ITU-reserved V2 system allocation of 42,000.

  3. 03.

    At 34°S latitude (Sydney), the geometry of Starlink's inclined shells means 4-6 high-quality passes per day (elevation > 30°) — enough for continuous broadband with handoff.

  4. 04.

    The constellation's reliability comes from redundancy, not individual satellite uptime — each shell has enough spares that a satellite failure causes 0 coverage impact.

  5. 05.

    Kessler cascade risk becomes analytically non-trivial above ~6,000 operational LEO satellites at 550km. SpaceX's deorbit-within-5-years commitment is the key mitigation.

  6. 06.

    Pass prediction for a ground station at 34°S was computed analytically from Keplerian orbital parameters — no external API, all mathematics in TypeScript.

// data_lineage

  • SpaceX Starlink launch manifests (public press releases)
  • Celestrak TLE archive
  • FCC satellite licence filings
  • ITU radio regulations filing database
  • NASA Debris Assessment Software (DAS) methodology

// built_with

React 19TypeScriptSVG orbital diagram (custom Keplerian math)Pass geometry computed analyticallyNext.js

// methodology_note

Orbital positions are illustrative geometry, not real-time TLE propagation. Pass windows computed from simplified two-body mechanics with J2 perturbation correction for latitude accuracy.